Derby Post Positions Possibly More Meaningful in 2016

Logic dictates no one wants the dreaded one-hole, but post 2 is considered about as bad. In short, no one wants to be stuck on the inside. The rail post hasn’t produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986, and just one top three finish (Risen Star’s third in 1988). The number 2 post hasn’t seen a winner since Affirmed in 1978, but interestingly has yielded 28.9% in-the-money finishes in the race’s history – more than any other post.

Recent outside posts have been anomalies

Since 18, 19 and 20 horse fields have become the norm over the last 30 or so years, it’s been a statistical disadvantage to break wider than post 14, with just 8 winners in 184 starts. It’s worth noting, however, that recent winners of the Run for Roses have begun to buck the trend with Fusaichi Pegasus, Big Brown, Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another, and American Pharoah all winning from the 15-20 slots in the new millennium.

Lack of versatility in 2016 field 

With the exception of Nyquist, and arguably Gun Runner none of the 2016 Derby contestants have shown the kind of versatility and resilience to adapt to a variety of racing conditions, or the ability to overcome a bad trip. In a year where handicappers will certainly be required to make several fine-line decisions, the post draw may be the place to begin culling the field.